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2014

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March

  

100th anniversary of the birth of Ya.B. Zeldovich


Climate as a game of chance


Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena, California, 91109-0899, USA

The paper uses general concepts and simple models to examine the role of randomness in chaotic systems, like the Earth’s climate, response to external forcing. The response of a simple homogeneous system is determined by its correlation function in accord with the Fluctuation Dissipation Theorem. A structured (patterned) system responds in a more complicated way. Whereas its mean state (for example, the Earth’s global temperature) changes only slightly, extreme events (such as floods and droughts) increase more dramatically in number. The statistics of extremes reveals remarkable properties, in particular, clustering (troubles never come alone, the saying goes) and are here illustrated by precipitation and space climate processes.

Text can be downloaded in Russian. English translation is available here.
PACS: 02.50.−r, 05.45.−a, 92.05.Df (all)
DOI: 10.3367/UFNe.0184.201403f.0297
URL: https://ufn.ru/en/articles/2014/3/f/
Citation: Ruzmaikin A "Climate as a game of chance" Phys. Usp. 57 280–291 (2014)
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Received: 21st, October 2013, revised: 9th, December 2013, 10th, December 2013

Оригинал: Рузмайкин А «Климат как игра случая» УФН 184 297–311 (2014); DOI: 10.3367/UFNr.0184.201403f.0297

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