The phenomenological theory of world population growth

Of all global problems world population growth is the most significant. Demographic data describe this process in a concise and quantitative way in its past and present. Analysing this development it is possible by applying the concepts of systems analysis and synergetics, to work out a mathematical model for a phenomenological description of the global demographic process and to project its trends into the future. Assuming self-similarity as the dynamic principle of development, growth can be described practically over the whole of human history, assuming the growth rate to be proportional to the square of the number of people. The large parameter of the theory and the effective size of a coherent population group is of the order of 10⁵ and the microscopic parameter of the phenomenology is the human lifespan. The demographic transition — a transition to a stabilised world population of some 14 billion in a foreseeable future — is a systemic singularity and is determined by the inherent pattern of growth of an open system, rather than by the lack of resources. The development of a quantitative nonlinear theory of the world population is of interest for interdisciplinary research in anthropology and demography, history and sociology, for population genetics and epidemiology, for studies in evolution of humankind and the origin of man. The model also provides insight into the stability of growth and the present predicament of humankind, and provides a setting for discussing the main global problems.

PACS: 01.75.+m
DOI: 10.1070/PU1996v039n01ABEH000127
URL: https://ufn.ru/en/articles/1996/1/c/
Web of Science

A1996TZ81500003
Citation: Kapitsa S P "The phenomenological theory of world population growth" Phys. Usp. 39 57–71 (1996)

BibTexBibNote ® (generic)BibNote ® (RIS)MedlineRefWorks

Оригинал: Капица С П «Феноменологическая теория роста населения Земли» УФН 166 63–80 (1996); DOI: 10.3367/UFNr.0166.199601c.0063

References (51) ↓ Cited by (72) Similar articles (20)

Vishnevskii A G Vosproizvodstvo Naseleniya i Obshchestvo (Population growth and society, Moscow: Finansy i statistika, 1982)
Ehrlich A, Ehrlich P The Population Explosion (New York: Simonand Schuster, 1990)
Chesnais J-C The Demographic Transition (Oxford: Oxford Univ. Press, 1992)
Sauvy A Theorie Generale de la Population Vol. II (Paris: Presse Universitaires de France, 1966)
The Cambridge Encyclopedia of Human Evolution (Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. Press, 1994)
Vorontzov N N Priroda (2) 79 (1973)
Nicolis G, Prigogine I R Self-Organization in Nonequilibrium Systems (New York: Wiley, 1977)
Haken H Advanced Synergetics. Instability Hierarchies in Self-Organizing Systems and Devices (Berlin: Springer, 1987)
Kapitza S P Matematicheskoe Modelirovanie 4 (6) 65 (1992)
Kapitza S P "World population growth as a scaling phenomenon and the population explosion", in Climate Change and Energy Policy (Eds L Rosen, R Glasser, New York: AIP, 1992)
Kapitza S P "The population imperative and population explosion", Proceedings of 42 Pugwash Conference on Science and World Affairs, Berlin, 1992 (Singapore: World Science, 1994) p. 822
Kapitza S P Science spectra 4 (1) 60 (1996)
Haberl H, Aubaur H P Simulation of Human Population Dynamics by a Hyperlogistic Time-Delay Equation (University of Vienna, Institute fPr Zooloqie, preprint, 1991); J. Theor. Biol. 156 499 (1992)
Tuckel H C Nature (London) 359 200 (1992); Monro J Nature (London) 363 215 (1993)
Foerster, von H et al. Science 132 1291 (1960)
Hoerner, von S J. of British Interplanetary Society 28 691 (1975)
Kurdiumov S P et al. Modern Problems in Mathematics. Recent Developments Vol. 28 (Moscow: VINITI, 1987)
Kurdiumov S P Intern. Journal of Modern Physics 1 (4) 299 (1990)
Barenblatt G I Similarity, Self-Similarity and Intermediate Asymptotics (New York: Plenum, 1979)
Weiss K M Human Biology 56 637 (1984)
Keyfitz N Applied Mathematical Demography (New York: Wiley, 1977)
Wood B Nature (London) 355 783 (1992)
Coppens Y Personal Communication (1991)
Khrisanfova E, Perevozchikov I Anthropology (Moscow: Moscow State University, 1991)
Foley R Another Unique Species. Patterns in Human Evolutionary Ecology (New York: Longman, 1987)
Biraben J-N Population (1) 13 (1979)
Long Range World Population Projections. Two Centuries of Population Growth 1950--2150 (New York: UN, 1992)
Arizpe L, Constanza R, Lutz W, in An Agenda of Science for Environment and Development into 21-st Century (Eds J C I Dooge et al., Cambridge: ICSU, CUP, 1992)
Sadyk N The Population of the World (UNPLA, 1990)
Vishnevsky A "Demographic revolution and the future of fertility: a systems approach", in Future Demographic Trends (Ed. W Lutz, New York: Academic Press, 1979)
Keyfitz N, Flieger W World Population Growth and Aging (Chicago, London: Univ. of Chicago Press, 1990)
Population Situation in 1991 with Special Emphasis on Age Structure (New York: UN, 1991)
Gibbon E The Decay and Fall of the Roman Empire (London, 1789)
Konrad N East and West 2-d ed. (Moscow: Nauka, 1972)
D’yakonov I M The Path of History (Moscow: Izd. Vost. Lit., 1994, in Russian)
Vasko T The Long Wave Debate. Selected papers (Berlin, 1985)
Le Bras H La Planete au Village (Paris: Springer-Verlag, 1987)
Trubnikov O Priroda (11) 3 (1993)
The prospects of world urbanization (New York: UN, 1987)
Scarrott G G Some Consequences of Recursion in Human Affairs, IEE Proc. 129 A (1) 66 (1982)
Keynes J M The Economic Consequence of the Peace (London, 1920)
McLaren D Are There Limits to Population and Technology? (Ottawa: R.S.of Canada, 1992)
Le Bras H "The myth of overpopulation" Projection (7/8) 83 (1992)
Meadows D H et al. Limits to Growth (New York, 1972); Beyond the Limits (London: Earthscan Publ., 1992)
Mesarovic M, Pestel E Mankind at the Turning Point (New York: Dutton, 1974)
King A, Schneider B The First Global Revolution (New York: Pantheon Books, 1991)
Kurdiumov S, Kniaseva E "Synergistic world view: blow-up events", in Self-Organization and Science (Moscow: RAS, 1994, in Russian)
Fukuyama F The End of History and the Last Man 1992
Kapitza S P "The impact of the demographic transition", in Overcoming Indifference. Ten Key Challenges in Today’s World (Ed. K Schwab, New York: New York Univ. Press, 1994)
Gore A Earth in the Balance: Ecology and the Human Spirit (Boston: Houghton Miffin, 1992)
Barenblatt G J, Goldenfeld N Does Fully Developed Turbulence Exist? Reynolds Number Independence Versus Asymptotic Covariance TAM Report No. 796 (UILV-ENG-95-6018, 1995)