Issues

 / 

1996

 / 

January

  

Topical problems


The phenomenological theory of world population growth


P.L. Kapitza Institute for Physical Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Kosygina 2, Moscow, 117334, Russian Federation

Of all global problems world population growth is the most significant. Demographic data describe this process in a concise and quantitative way in its past and present. Analysing this development it is possible by applying the concepts of systems analysis and synergetics, to work out a mathematical model for a phenomenological description of the global demographic process and to project its trends into the future. Assuming self-similarity as the dynamic principle of development, growth can be described practically over the whole of human history, assuming the growth rate to be proportional to the square of the number of people. The large parameter of the theory and the effective size of a coherent population group is of the order of 105 and the microscopic parameter of the phenomenology is the human lifespan. The demographic transition — a transition to a stabilised world population of some 14 billion in a foreseeable future — is a systemic singularity and is determined by the inherent pattern of growth of an open system, rather than by the lack of resources. The development of a quantitative nonlinear theory of the world population is of interest for interdisciplinary research in anthropology and demography, history and sociology, for population genetics and epidemiology, for studies in evolution of humankind and the origin of man. The model also provides insight into the stability of growth and the present predicament of humankind, and provides a setting for discussing the main global problems.

Fulltext pdf (631 KB)
Fulltext is also available at DOI: 10.1070/PU1996v039n01ABEH000127
PACS: 01.75.+m
DOI: 10.1070/PU1996v039n01ABEH000127
URL: https://ufn.ru/en/articles/1996/1/c/
A1996TZ81500003
Citation: Kapitsa S P "The phenomenological theory of world population growth" Phys. Usp. 39 57–71 (1996)
BibTexBibNote ® (generic)BibNote ® (RIS)MedlineRefWorks

Оригинал: Капица С П «Феноменологическая теория роста населения Земли» УФН 166 63–80 (1996); DOI: 10.3367/UFNr.0166.199601c.0063

References (51) Cited by (73) ↓ Similar articles (20)

  1. Grinin L, Grinin A, Korotayev A World Futures 80 199 (2024)
  2. Taagepera R, Nemčok M The Anthropocene Review 11 163 (2024)
  3. Soriano C C Marxism and Earth’s Habitability Crisis Marx, Engels, And Marxisms Chapter 3 (2024) p. 37
  4. Grinin L, Grinin A, Korotayev A Cybernetic Revolution and Global Aging World-Systems Evolution And Global Futures Chapter 13 (2024) p. 523
  5. Sadovnichy V, Akaev A et al Reconsidering the Limits to Growth World-Systems Evolution And Global Futures Chapter 14 (2023) p. 241
  6. Grobys K International Review Of Financial Analysis 89 102787 (2023)
  7. Akaev A, Malkov S et al Reconsidering the Limits to Growth World-Systems Evolution And Global Futures Chapter 19 (2023) p. 419
  8. Ustinova I 2023 IEEE International Conference on Smart Information Systems and Technologies (SIST), (2023) p. 232
  9. Alam A, Biswas S, Satpati L Population, Sanitation and Health Chapter 1 (2023) p. 3
  10. Akaev A, Malkov S et al Reconsidering the Limits to Growth World-Systems Evolution And Global Futures Chapter 17 (2023) p. 337
  11. Zakharov V V Dokl. Math. 108 419 (2023)
  12. Zakharov V V Doklady Rossijskoj Akademii Nauk. Matematika, Informatika, Processy Upravleniâ 513 108 (2023)
  13. Budanov V, Arshinov V et al SCIENCE AND HUMAN PHENOMENA IN THE ERA OF CIVILIZATIONAL MACROSHIFT 1 (2023)
  14. Trubitsyn O K Jour 21 36 (2023)
  15. Malkov S, Grinin L et al Reconsidering the Limits to Growth World-Systems Evolution And Global Futures Chapter 18 (2023) p. 387
  16. Kartashov A S Metaphysics (2) 8 (2022)
  17. Gladkov S O BIOPHYSICS 66 858 (2021)
  18. TAMERGENCER Zekiye 8 471 (2021)
  19. Grinin L, Grinin A, Korotayev A World Futures 77 335 (2021)
  20. Grinin L, Grinin A, Korotayev A V The 21st Century Singularity and Global Futures World-Systems Evolution And Global Futures Chapter 14 (2020) p. 287
  21. LePoire D J, Devezas T The 21st Century Singularity and Global Futures World-Systems Evolution And Global Futures Chapter 11 (2020) p. 213
  22. Panov A The 21st Century Singularity and Global Futures World-Systems Evolution And Global Futures Chapter 20 (2020) p. 439
  23. Korotayev A V The 21st Century Singularity and Global Futures World-Systems Evolution And Global Futures Chapter 2 (2020) p. 19
  24. Modeling Evolution of Heterogenous Populations (2020) p. 327
  25. Korotayev A V The 21st Century Singularity and Global Futures World-Systems Evolution And Global Futures Chapter 26 (2020) p. 571
  26. LePoire D J, Korotayev A V The 21st Century Singularity and Global Futures World-Systems Evolution And Global Futures Chapter 27 (2020) p. 599
  27. Fomin A The 21st Century Singularity and Global Futures World-Systems Evolution And Global Futures Chapter 5 (2020) p. 105
  28. Sibani P, Rasmussen S Physica A: Statistical Mechanics And Its Applications 558 124985 (2020)
  29. Grinin L, Grinin A, Korotayev A Technological Forecasting And Social Change 155 119955 (2020)
  30. Kareva I, Karev G Modeling Evolution of Heterogenous Populations (2020) p. 25
  31. Zgurovsky M Z, Zaychenko Yu P Studies In Big Data Vol. Big Data: Conceptual Analysis and ApplicationsIntellectual Analysis of Systemic World Conflicts and Global Forecast for the 21st Century58 Chapter 4 (2020) p. 141
  32. Tsirel S The 21st Century Singularity and Global Futures World-Systems Evolution And Global Futures Chapter 6 (2020) p. 119
  33. Mitikhin V G, Yastrebov V S, Mitikhina I A Neurosci Behav Physi 49 233 (2019)
  34. Kareva I, Karev G Bull Math Biol 80 151 (2018)
  35. Pokrovskii V N Econodynamics New Economic Windows Chapter 12 (2018) p. 237
  36. Rogalchuk V, Arustamov S et al Dynamic Knowledge Representation in Scientific Domains Advances In Web Technologies And Engineering chapter 13 (2018) p. 286
  37. Ivanitskii G R Phys.-Usp. 61 871 (2018)
  38. Cardullo M W, Mannie L M JBFE 70 (2017)
  39. Mitikhin V G, Yastrebov V S, Mitikhina I A Z. Nevrol. Psikhiatr. Im. S.S. Korsakova 117 5 (2017)
  40. Karev G P, Kareva I Bull Math Biol 78 834 (2016)
  41. Karev G P, Kareva I G, Morozov A Math. Model. Nat. Phenom. 9 68 (2014)
  42. Aral M M Front. Environ. Sci. 2 (2014)
  43. Aral M M Water Qual Expo Health 6 53 (2014)
  44. Taagepera R Technological Forecasting And Social Change 82 34 (2014)
  45. Yukalov V I, Yukalova E P, Sornette D Int. J. Bifurcation Chaos 24 1450021 (2014)
  46. Krushel E G, Stepanchenko I V et al Communications In Computer And Information Science Vol. Knowledge-Based Software EngineeringForecasting Model of Small City Depopulation Processes and Possibilities of Their Prevention466 Chapter 38 (2014) p. 446
  47. Yukalov V I, Yukalova E P et al PLoS ONE 8 e83225 (2013)
  48. Rodkin M V, Pisarenko V F Selected Papers From Volume 31 ofVychislitel’naya Seysmologiya Computational Seismology And Geodynamics (2013) p. 85
  49. Peura P Renewable And Sustainable Energy Reviews 19 309 (2013)
  50. Yukalov V I, Yukalova E P, Sornette D SSRN Journal (2012)
  51. Yukalov V I, Yukalova E P, Sornette D Eur. Phys. J. Spec. Top. 205 313 (2012)
  52. Miranda L C M, Lima C A S Technological Forecasting And Social Change 78 1445 (2011)
  53. Zgurovsky M Z Cybern Syst Anal 46 167 (2010)
  54. Kapitza S P Uspekhi Fizicheskikh Nauk 180 1337 (2010)
  55. Dolgonosov B M Ecological Modelling 221 1702 (2010)
  56. Cai J C, Mei D C Eur. Phys. J. B 72 607 (2009)
  57. Nikol’skii I M MoscowUniv.Comput.Math.Cybern. 31 154 (2007)
  58. Kurkina E S, Nikol’skii I M Comput Math Model 18 217 (2007)
  59. Kotelnikova E, Kalinin A et al Evol Bioinform Online 3 (2007)
  60. Lemarchand G A The Future of Life and the Future of our Civilization Chapter 51 (2006) p. 457
  61. Kurkina E S, Nikol’skii I M Comput Math Model 17 320 (2006)
  62. Dolgonosov B M, Naidenov V I Ecological Modelling 198 375 (2006)
  63. Kurkina E S Comput Math Model 16 257 (2005)
  64. Kurkina E S Comput Math Model 16 121 (2005)
  65. Panov A D Advances In Space Research 36 220 (2005)
  66. Lemarchand G A Symp. - Int. Astron. Union 213 460 (2004)
  67. Mitnitski A, Rockwood K Sci. Aging Knowl. Environ. 2003 (12) (2003)
  68. SORNETTE D, IDE K Int. J. Mod. Phys. C 14 267 (2003)
  69. Ide K, Sornette D Physica A: Statistical Mechanics And Its Applications 307 63 (2002)
  70. Johansen A, Sornette D Physica A: Statistical Mechanics And Its Applications 294 465 (2001)
  71. Pimentel D, Edwards C A Implementing Ecological Integrity Chapter 26 (2000) p. 377
  72. Knyazeva H World Futures 54 163 (1999)
  73. Morrison P International Astronomical Union Colloquium 161 571 (1997)

© 1918–2025 Uspekhi Fizicheskikh Nauk
Email: ufn@ufn.ru Editorial office contacts About the journal Terms and conditions