RSS feeds
РусскийEnglish
Issue 11, 2024
Volume year page
Issues Authors PACS Subscription For authors

Issues

 / 

2022

 / 

November

←  →

Conferences and symposia. Forum "USPEKHI-2021": Climate change and global energy issues


New paradigm for civil nuclear energy. Perspectives from the hierarchy of energy sources and fundamental safety

† 
Transform Insight Partners

This paper is a review and treatise extended in scope and based on a presentation made at the Uspekhi Forum on Climate Change and Global Energy. Following a brief overview of the history, status, and outlook of civil nuclear energy to present the key problems and challenges, this energy source is placed in a primary energy hierarchy on Earth with all classes of energy systems based on fundamental forces to reveal its unique characteristics that set civil nuclear energy qualitatively apart. A new paradigm is outlined with a distinct set of safety categories, design principles, and production methods that differ from conventional nuclear power, which leads to a global energy„ system solution for much broader development and deployment at scale in time to help mitigate climate change. Based on concepts and methods from studies of emergent properties in complex adaptive systems, we use a scaling method to analyze nuclear reactor safety and economics, and explicitly relate reactor unit scale, safety limits, and production volume to cumulative cost and capacity. Simultaneous improvement in and optimization of nuclear safety and economics are leading to small modular reactors (SMRs) and micro reactors (MRs) as exemplar technologies of the new paradigm. We show that select SMR and MR designs with deterministic fundamental safety should be manufactured, which can achieve substantial cost reductions as production volumes increase, following Wright's law observed in the majority of proven technologies. The new paradigm offers distinct and testable predictions, some of which have been partially tested, and some of which have surrogate tests from successful technologies and industries, which are also endowed with substantial transferable capabilities and capacities for implementation. The scaling principles and results should be generally applicable to other energy systems and the majority of manufactured goods.

Fulltext pdf (612 KB)
To the readers pdf (115 KB)
Fulltext is also available at DOI: 10.3367/UFNe.2021.08.039082
Keywords: nuclear energy, paradigm, primary energy hierarchy, fundamental safety, manufactured systems, economies of production volume, unit scale, small modular reactors, micro reactors, global energy solution
PACS: 28.41.−i, 28.50.−k, 89.30.Gg (all)
DOI: 10.3367/UFNe.2021.08.039082
URL: https://ufn.ru/en/articles/2022/11/g/
001098566300003
2-s2.0-85182890431
Citation: Li N "New paradigm for civil nuclear energy. Perspectives from the hierarchy of energy sources and fundamental safety" Phys. Usp. 65 1155–1187 (2022)
BibTexBibNote ® (generic)BibNote ® (RIS)MedlineRefWorks

Received: 24th, July 2021, 27th, August 2021

Оригинал: Ли Н «Новая парадигма для "мирного атома". Взгляд с точки зрения иерархии источников энергии и фундаментальной безопасности» УФН 192 1231–1274 (2022); DOI: 10.3367/UFNr.2021.08.039082

References (112) ↓ Similar articles (7)

  1. Kuhn T S The Structure Of Scientific Revolutions (Chicago, IL: Univ. of Chicago Press, 1962); Translated into Russian, Kuhn T S Struktura Nauchnykh Revolyutsii (Moscow: AST, 2020)
  2. "The Future of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle". MIT Energy Initiative. An Interdisciplinary MIT Study. MIT, 2011, http://energy.mit.edu/research/future-nuclear-fuel-cycle/
  3. Murogov V M Nucl. Energy Technol. 5 (3) 241 (2019)
  4. Li N "A paradigm shift needed for nuclear reactors: from economies of unit scale to economies of production scale" Proc. of Intern. Congress on Advances in Nuclear Power Plants, ICAPP’09, Tokyo, Japan, May 10-14, 2009
  5. Advances In Small Modular Reactor Technology Developments. A Supplement To: IAEA Advanced Reactors Information System (ARIS) 2020 ed. (Vienna: IAEA, 2020), and SMR publications in 2011, 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018; https://aris.iaea.org/Publications/SMR_Book_2020.pdf
  6. Ux Consulting, Small Modular Reactor Assessments (2010)
  7. Ux Consulting, Small Modular Reactor Market Outlook (2013)
  8. Ingersoll D T, Carelli M D (Eds) Handbook Of Small Modular Nuclear Reactors 1st ed. (Oxford: Woodhead Publ., 2014); Ingersoll D T, Carelli M D (Eds) Handbook Of Small Modular Nuclear Reactors 2nd ed. (Oxford: Woodhead Publ., 2020)
  9. "Small Modular Reactors: Nuclear Energy Market Potential for Near-term Deployment". Nuclear Energy Agency. OECD. NEA, 2016, https://www.oecd-nea.org/jcms/pl_14924/small-modular-reactors-nuclear-energy-market-potential-for-near-term-deployment?details=true
  10. Stokes G M et al "American Nuclear Energy at the Crossroads" Novim Group (Santa Barbara, CA: Univ. of California, 2017)
  11. "Reinventing Construction: A Route to Higher Productivity". Report. McKinsey Global Institute. Reinventing construction through aproductivity revolution. 2017, https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/operations/our-insights/reinventing-construction-through-a-productivity-revolution
  12. "Solving the Productivity Puzzle". The Role of Demand and the Promise of Digitization. Report. McKinsey and Company, 2018, https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/regions-in-focus/solving-the-productivity-puzzle
  13. Ingersoll E, Gogan K "Missing Link to a Livable Climate: How Hydrogen-Enabled Synthetic Fuels Can Help Deliver the Paris Goals". Lucid Catalyst, Terra Praxis, 2020, https://www.lucidcatalyst.com/hydrogen-report
  14. Weinberg A M et al The Second Nuclear Era: A New Start For Nuclear Power (Ed. R Manning) (New York: Praeger, 1985)
  15. Spiewak I, Weinberg A M Annu. Rev. Energy 10 431 (1985)
  16. Weinberg A M The First Nuclear Era: The Life And Times Of A Technological Fixer (New York: AIP Press, 1997)
  17. Weinberg A M Science 186 205 (1974)
  18. Weinberg A M Minerva 10 209 (1972)
  19. Weinberg A M Science 177 211 (1972)
  20. Simon H A The Sciences Of The Artificial 1st ed. (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1969); Simon H A The Sciences Of The Artificial 2nd ed. (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1981); Simon H A The Sciences Of The Artificial 3rd ed. (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1996)
  21. Newell A, Simon H A Human Problem Solving (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1972)
  22. Simon H A "The Science of Design: Creating the Artificial" Design Issues, Vol. 4, No. 1/2, Designing the Immaterial Society (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1988) p. 67-82
  23. Anderson P W Science 177 393 (1972)
  24. Anderson P W More And Different: Notes From A Thoughtful Curmudgeon (Singapore: World Scientific, 2011)
  25. Wilczek F A Beautiful Question: Finding Nature’s Deep Design (New York: Penguin Books, 2016)
  26. Wilczek F "Physical foundations of future technology" Megatech: Technology In 2050 (New York: The Economist Books, PublicAffairs, 2017)
  27. Waldrop M M Complexity: The Emerging Science At The Edge Of Order And Chaos (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1992)
  28. West G Scale: The Universal Laws Of Growth, Innovation, Sustainability, And The Pace Of Life In Organisms, Cities, Economics, And Companies (New York: Penguin Press, 2017)
  29. Bejan A Shape And Structure, From Engineering To Nature (New York: Cambridge Univ. Press, 2000)
  30. Romer P M J. Political Economy 98 (5, Pt. 2) S71 (1990)
  31. Romer P M J. Economic Perspectives 8 (1) 3 (1994)
  32. Greenspan E (Ed.-in-Chief) Encyclopedia Of Nuclear Energy (Amsterdam: Elsevier, 2021)
  33. International Atomic Energy Agency, PRIS Power Reactor Information System, https://pris.iaea.org/pris
  34. Nuclear Power Reactors in the World (Reference Data Series, No. 2) 2020 ed. (Vienna: International Atomic Energy Agency, 2020), https://www.iaea.org/publications/14756/nuclear-power-reactors-in-the-world
  35. International Atomic Energy Agency, ARIS Advanced Reactors Information System, https://aris.iaea.org
  36. "A Technology Roadmap for Generation IV Nuclear Energy Systems", U.S. DOE Nuclear Energy Research Advisory Committee and the Generation IV Intern. Forum, GIF-002-00 (2002), https://www.gen-4.org/gif/jcms/c_9352/technology-roadmap
  37. Generation IV International Forum, Technology Roadmap Update for Generation IV Nuclear Energy Systems. OECD Nuclear Energy Agency, 2014, https://www.gen-4.org/gif/jcms/c_9352/technology-roadmap
  38. International Atomic Energy Agency, International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO, accessed March 2021), https://www.iaea.org/services/key-programmes/international-project-on-innovative-nuclear-reactors-and-fuel-cycles-inpro
  39. International Atomic Energy Agency, INPRO Methodology for Sustainability Assessment of Nuclear Energy Systems: Safety of Nuclear Reactors. IAEA-TECDOC-1902, 2020, https://www.iaea.org/publications/12298/inpro-methodology-for-sustainability-assessment-of-nuclear-energy-systems-safety-of-nuclear-reactors
  40. Atlantic Council Task Force on US Nuclear Energy Leadership, US Nuclear Energy Leadership: Innovation and the Strategic Global Challenge. Atlantic Council Global Energy Center, 2019, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/us-nuclear-energy-leadership-innovation-and-the-strategic-global-challenge-2/
  41. U.S. DOE, Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program, 2021, https://www.energy.gov/ne/nuclear-reactor-technologies/advanced-reactor-demonstration-program
  42. Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Versatile Test Reactor - Solving Energy Challenges through Science, 2021, https://inl.gov/vtr/
  43. U.S. DOE, Accident Tolerant Fuels. 2021, https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/5-things-you-should-know-about-accident-tolerant-fuels; High-Assay Low- Enriched Uranium (HALEU). 2021, https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/what-high-assay-low-enriched-uranium-haleu
  44. Kempfer J, Allen T "2020 Advanced Nuclear Map: Progress Amidst a Tumultuous Year", https://www.thirdway.org/graphic/2020-advanced-nuclear-map-progress-amidst-a-tumultuous-year
  45. World Nuclear Performance Report, 2020 ed., No. 2020/008 (London: World Nuclear Association, 2020), https://www.worldnuclear.org/our-association/publications/global-trends-reports/world-nuclear-performance-report.aspx
  46. ElBaradei M "The Enduring Lessons of Chernobyl" (Vienna: IAEA, 2005), https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/statements/enduring-lessons-chernobyl
  47. Taleb N N The Black Swan: The Impact Of The Highly Improbable (New York: Random House, 2007)
  48. Ritchie H, Roser M "Energy", Our World in Data, 2020, accessed in March, 2021, https://ourworldindata.org/energy, and data sources referenced therein
  49. "Global Warming of 1.5 ˚C", Special Report (International Panel on Climate Change, 2018), https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/
  50. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2020. IEA, (Paris, 2020), https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2020
  51. International Energy Agency, Nuclear Power in a Clean Energy System. IEA (Paris, 2019), https://www.iea.org/reports/nuclear-power-in-a-clean-energy-system
  52. OECD — Nuclear Energy Agency, Nuclear Energy: Combating Climate Change. NEA (Paris, 2015), https://www.oecd-nea.org/jcms/pl_14914/nuclear-energy-combating-climate-change
  53. International Atomic Energy Agency, Climate Change and Nuclear Power 2020. IAEA (Vienna, 2020), https://www.iaea.org/publications/14725/climate-change-and-nuclear-power-2020
  54. MIT Energy Initiative (MITEI), The Future of Nuclear Energy in a Carbon-Constrained World — An Interdisciplinary MIT Study. (MIT, 2018), https://energy.mit.edu/research/future-nuclear-energy-carbon-constrained-world/
  55. Climate Interactive, En-ROADS. Online, 2021, https://www.climateinteractive.org/tools/en-roads/
  56. Hecker S S (Ed.) Doomed To Cooperate: How American And Russian Scientists Joined Forces To Avert Some Of The Greatest Post-Cold War Nuclear Dangers (Los Alamos, NM: Bathtub Row Press, 2016)
  57. Hecker S S, Kassianova A A "The future of global nuclear power through the eyes of young Russian and American professionals", Bull. Atomic Scientists (June 20, 2019), https://thebulletin.org/2019/06/the-future-of-global-nuclear-power-through-the-eyes-of-young-russian-and-american-professionals/, and the featured articles
  58. "Nuclear technology’s rolethe world’s energy supply is shrinking. Anniversaries of the Fukushima and Chernobyl disasters highlight the challenges of relying on nuclear power to cut net carbon emissions to zero" Nature, (09 March 2021) Editorial
  59. Eisenhower D D "Atoms for Peace Speech" The 470th Plenary Meeting of the United Nations General Assembly, 8 December 1953; https://www.iaea.org/about/history/atoms-for-peace-speech
  60. Hirschberg S et al Comparison Of Severe Accident Risks In Fossil, Nuclear And Hydro Electricity Generation (Villigen: Paul Scherrer Institute, 2001)
  61. Ritchie H "What are the safest and cleanest sources of energy?", Our World in Data, 2020, https://ourworldindata.org/safest-sources-of-energy
  62. Slovic P Science 236 280 (1987)
  63. Gregory R, Mendelsohn R Risk Analysis 13 (3) 259 (1993)
  64. Gregory R, Flynn J, Slovic P Am. Scientist 83 (3) 220 (1995)
  65. Slovic P "Trust, emotion, sex, politics, and science: Surveying the risk-assessment battlefield" Environment, Ethics, And Behavior: The Psychology Of Environmental Valuation And Degradation (Eds M H Bazerman et al) (San Francisco: New Lexington Press, 1997) p. 277-313
  66. IAEA, Milestones in the Development of a National Infrastructure for Nuclear Power, IAEA Nuclear Energy Series NBG-G-3.1, Rev.1 (2015)
  67. Atlantic Council Task Force on US Nuclear Energy Leadership: Innovation and the Strategic Global Challenge. Global Energy Center, 2019, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/us-nuclear-energy-leadership-innovation-and-the-strategic-global-challenge-2/
  68. Nagy B et al PLoS One 8 (2) e52669 (2013)
  69. Farmer J D, Lafond F Res. Policy 45 (3) 647 (2016)
  70. Smil V "Germany’s Energiewende, 20 Years Later" IEEE Spectrum (2020); https://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/renewables/germanys-energiewende-20-years-later
  71. Way R, Mealy P, Farmer J D "Estimating the costs of energy transition scenarios using probabilistic forecasting methods" INET Oxford Working Paper No. 2021-01 (Oxford: Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, 2020); https://www.inet.ox.ac.uk/publications/no-2021-01-estimating-the-costs-of-energy-transition-scenarios-using-probabilistic-forecasting-methods/
  72. McNerney J et al Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 108 9008 (2011)
  73. Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), Proliferation Risks of Nuclear Power Programs. NTI, 2007, https://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/risks-nuclear-power-programs/
  74. Davies R V et al Nature 203 1110 (1964)
  75. Liu C et al Nat. Energy 2 17007 (2017)
  76. Dungan K et al Prog. Nucl. Energy 99 81 (2017)
  77. Yuan Y et al Nat. Sustain. 4 708 (2021)
  78. Le Quéré C et al Earth Syst. Sci. Data 6 (1) 235 (2014)
  79. World Nuclear Association, Radioactive WasteìMyths and Realities. Updated 2021, https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/nuclear-wastes/radioactive-wastes-myths-and-realities.aspx
  80. Office of Nuclear Energy, 5 Fast Facts about Spent Nuclear Fuel. U.S. DOE, 2021, https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/5-fast-facts-about-spent-nuclear-fuel
  81. Curtis T L et al "A Circular Economy for Solar Photovoltaic System Materials: Drivers, Barriers, Enables, and U.S. Policy Considerations" Technical Report NREL/TP-6A20-74550 (Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2021); https://www.nrel.gov.docs/fy21osti/74550
  82. Xu Y et al Waste Management 75 450 (2018)
  83. Moran E F et al Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 115 11891 (2018)
  84. Li N Energy Policy 36 (6) 2212 (2008)
  85. Rasmussen N C Annu. Rev. Energy 6 123 (1981)
  86. U.S. NRC, Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), https://www.nrc.gov/about-nrc/regulatory/risk-informed/pra.html
  87. Pedersen T IAEA Bull. 31 (3) 25 (1989)
  88. Taleb N N Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder (New York: Random House, 2012)
  89. IAEA ARIS. KLT-40S, JSC Afrikantov OKB Mechanical Engineering (OKBM), Last update 23-04-2013, https://aris.iaea.org/PDF/KLT-40S.pdf
  90. Beliaev V, Polunichev V "Basic safety principles of KLT-40C reactor plants", IAEA INIS, 1998, https://inis.iaea.org/collection/NCLCollectionStore/_Public/31/058/31058468.pdf
  91. NuScale Power, One Plant Does it All ë Simultaneously, 2021, https://www.nuscalepower.com/
  92. Ed Cummins, Westinghouse ë AP1000 Plant Overview. IAEA INIS, 2014, https://inis.iaea.org/collection/NCLCollectionStore/_Public/46/123/46123064.pdf
  93. Wright T P J. Aeronaut. Sci. 3 122 (1936)
  94. Tribe M, Alpine R L W Eng. Costs Production Economics 10 271 (1986)
  95. Christensen L R, Greene W H J. Political Economy 84 (4, Pt. 1) 655 (1976)
  96. Laughlin R B, Pines D Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 97 (1) 28 (2000)
  97. Lee J C Nuclear Reactor Physics And Engineering (New York: John Wiley and Sons, 2020)
  98. Todreas N E, Kazimi M S Nuclear Systems I: Thermal Hydraulic Fundamentals (Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press, 1989)
  99. Todreas N E, Kazimi M S Nuclear Systems II: Elements Of Thermal Hydraulic Design (New York: Taylor and Francis, 1990)
  100. Oklo, What would you do with a MW-decade of clean energy? Accessed in May 2021, https://oklo.com/
  101. Ultra Safe Nuclear, Reliable Energy Anywhere. 2021, Accessed in May 2021, https://usnc.com/
  102. U.S. DOE, New MARVEL Project Aims to Supercharge Microreactor Deployment . Acces sed in May 2021,, https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/new-marvel-project-aims-super-charge-microreactor-deployment
  103. Brandt D E, Wesorick R R "GE Gas Turbine Design Philosophy" GE Power Generation GER-3434D (Schenectady, NY: GE Industrial and Power Systems, 1994)
  104. Turbomachinery International (TMI), Worldwide Gas Turbine Forecast. Turbomachinery Magazine Handbook (2019)
  105. Airbus, Global Market Forecast 2019-2038 (2018), https://www.airbus.com/aircraft/market/global-market-forecast.htm
  106. Boeing, Commercial Market Outlook 2020-2039 (2019), https://www.boeing.com/commercial/market/commercial-market-outlook/index.page
  107. UNCTAD, Review of Maritime Transport (2020), https://unctad.org/webflyer/review-maritime-transport-2020
  108. Drobinski Ph, Tantet A Phys. Usp. 65 1119 (2022); Drobinski Ph, Tantet A Usp. Fiz. Nauk 192 1191 (2022)
  109. IEA. "Net Zero by 2050.ARoadmap for the Global Energy Sector" (2021), https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050
  110. Gates B How To Avoid A Climate Disaster: The Solutions We Have And The Breakthroughs We Need (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2021)
  111. "Rethinking Deployment Scenarios to Enable Large-Scale, Demand-Driven Non-Electricity Markets for Advanced Reactors" Report ID 3002018348 (Palo Alto, CA: Electric Power Research Institute, 2021)
  112. Tajima T, Necas A, Massard T, Gales S Phys. Usp. 65 1193 (2022); Tajima T, Necas A, Massard T, Gales S Usp. Fiz. Nauk 192 1280 (2022)
© 1918–2024 Uspekhi Fizicheskikh Nauk
Email: ufn@ufn.ru Editorial office contacts About the journal Terms and conditions