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Конференции и симпозиумы. Форум "USPEKHI-2021: Изменение климата и проблемы глобальной энергетики


Повышение уровня моря в результате таяния ледников и ледяных щитов, вызванного потеплением климата выше доиндустриального уровня

† 
University of California, Irvine, 949-824-5011, Irvine, California, 92697, USA

Ледяные щиты в Гренландии и Антарктиде в сочетании с ледниками и ледяными шапками по всему миру быстрее и раньше, чем ожидалось, способствуют повышению глобального уровня моря. Полувековые наблюдения, физические модели и палеоклиматические записи предполагают, что повышение уровня моря в XXI столетии превысит 1 метр, но нельзя исключать и более экстремальные темпы повышения уровня моря. Я рассматриваю современное состояние знаний о балансе масс ледниковых щитов и ледников, его движущих физических механизмах, их влиянии на будущее повышение уровня моря, а также о том, прошли ли или как скоро пройдут наиболее уязвимые участки Антарктиды и Гренландии точку невозврата. Я считаю, что в нескольких секторах Гренландии и Антарктиды многометровое повышение уровня моря неизбежно, но скорость повышения уровня моря будет зависеть от того, насколько скоро мы возьмём под контроль потепление климата и впоследствии вернём нашу климатическую систему к доиндустриальному уровню. Чтобы уменьшить неопределённость прогнозов быстрых темпов повышения уровня моря в наступающем столетии, потребуются значительные инвестиции в исследования климатической системы Земли и в разработку более достоверных моделей связи атмосферы, океана и ледяных покровов, но они на порядки меньше, чем затраты человечества на адаптацию к повышению уровня моря.

Текст: pdf (Полный текст предоставляется по подписке)
English fulltext is available at DOI: 10.3367/UFNe.2021.11.039106
Ключевые слова: изменение климата, ледяные щиты, ледники, уровень моря, переломные моменты, нестабильность, воздействие
PACS: 92.40.Vg, 92.70.Jw, 92.70.Mn (все)
DOI: 10.3367/UFNr.2021.11.039106
URL: https://ufn.ru/ru/articles/2022/11/e/
001098566300002
2-s2.0-85146536082
Цитата: Риньо Э "Повышение уровня моря в результате таяния ледников и ледяных щитов, вызванного потеплением климата выше доиндустриального уровня" УФН 192 1203–1213 (2022)
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Поступила: 15 октября 2021, 22 ноября 2021

English citation: Rignot E “Sea level rise from melting glaciers and ice sheets caused by climate warming above pre-industrial levels” Phys. Usp. 65 1129–1138 (2022); DOI: 10.3367/UFNe.2021.11.039106

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