On weather extremes caused by climate warming
A.A. Ruzmaikin
Department of Physics and Astronomy, California State University Northridge, 18111 Nordhoff Str., Northridge, CA, 91330, USA
The influence of climate warming on the increase extreme weather events is investigated in a simple statistical model and using the longest known record of the Central England temperature for 1659—2021. It has been found that the shift of the mean monthly temperature due to climate warming has a significant influence on the probability of seeing extreme temperatures. Thus, the probability of seeing high temperatures at present time relative to 17th century in the record of temperature increases by approximately a factor of five. An average temperature in 20th century is greater or equal to the maximum temperature in 1659—1719 at each month. In 1961—2021 the probability of a temperature is 5.2 times larger than the probability of seeing the temperature greater or equal to the maximum temperature in 1659—1719.
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